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Domestic corn price goes 8 years first half of the year momentum is initial anal
From;  Author:Stand originally
Introductive: In the country macroscopical policy adjusting control, northeast produces an area to buy principal part below the resonance that serious deficient, feed purchases demand to put the element such as delay apparently, came December last year this year Feburary, level of price of whole of domestic corn market appears relatively substantially fall after a rise, especially northeast produces area new food to buy the market to enter buyer's market gradually, local corn buys the price to drop during this an accumulative total be as high as 80 yuan / ton, 140 yuan / ton, and farmer corn keep measures apparent also on the high side 20% the left and right sides. In the meantime, south major area is successive since the middle ten days of a month this year in January appeared 5 times blizzard weather, snow calamity caused huge impact to aquaculture of local cultivate birds. Here setting falls, the author produces combinative later period area farmer to sell grain to machine an enterprise plan, greatly to buy circumstance and aquaculture to restore a situation domestic corn price went first half of the year 2008 situation make with preliminary analysis, offer reference only.

In experience last year after prices of wide cut oscillation, of short duration of market of our country corn with " south strong north is weak " situation entered a new year. The to feed aquaculture tremendous and adverse effect of southern snow calamity before getting a red-letter day, preliminary forecast, 2 quarters or south of later time our country sell dosage of area corn raise to will show level sex to glide apparently this year trend, the great be a burden on that its corn price gets this factor may wide cut oscillation is adjusted downward. In the meantime, enter after March, northeast produces an area to will be greeted stage by stage make preparations for ploughing and sowing spring sowing climax, corn buys the price to will bear bigger seasonal supply pressure, but increase reserve grain to close considering later period government sector store, the policy of macroscopical adjusting control of contented and state-owned inventory is oriented won't produce directional change, accordingly, can foreknow from come at present the space that northeast corn price took weak considerably before spring sowing 2008 is not large already, contrary, partial area new food buys valence to get policy puissant pull move may sole rebounds, of course, rebound extent basically depends on at the appointed time the farmer sells other of grain plan, market to buy main body psychology and southern domestic animal birds breed aquatics reinstates plan. On the whole, suffer the effect of a lot of element such as supply and demand and policy face, predict posture of the raise after domestic corn price will appear to or first first half of the year 2008. Concrete analysis is as follows:

One, aquaculture current situation sells south of apparent be a burden on area corn consumption partly

This year January since the middle ten days of a month, southern snow calamity is pounded to aquaculture of live pig of local heavy disaster area tremendous, main concentration supplies a side in state of mind of level of amount of livestock on hand, filling column and young pig. Occupy statistical data to show, our country south saves aquaculture 13 times stricken be hit by a natural adversity area amounts to many mus 1400, because the cultivate birds of calamity death is amounted to,reach more than 6900 () . Survey knowledge according to concerning a section, be in area of Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, snow calamity and air temperature on the low side bring about pig mortality to rise substantially, when terrestrial electricity net large area breaks down, the part produces measure of lash-up of heat preservation of area pig farm not to reach the designated position, mortality of special pig young is taller, at present many area young pigs supply breach to be as high as 5-6 to become, this will from go up at all the influence arrives the southern young pig after beginning of spring fills this year column process. The level of live pig amount of livestock on hand of afore-mentioned stricken be hit by a natural adversity province arrives bit more basically to give birth to gross of pig amount of livestock on hand in the round 40% , 50% , because this snow calamity is right,the influence of aquaculture of our country live pig cannot be ignored. Additional as we have learned, 3 quarters began to fill in succession last year the sow of column, predict will at young animal is being produced after March, young pig supply can raise area of predicting south part somewhat after March, plus calamity of the snow between 1-2 month is bigger to influence of young pig surviving rate this year, preliminary estimation this snow calamity will make live pig aquaculture restores cycle at least defer of in the future the 3 time to 4 months.
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